Project monthly organic visits and revenue from a keyword by search volume, SERP position, AI Overview impact, conversion rate, and average order value. Free, multi-currency, no sign-up.
Calculator
Monthly revenue
$2,200.00
1,100 visits · 22 conversions at position 3
Monthly visits
1,100
Conversions
22
Value per visit
$2.00
How the estimate is calculated
The estimate starts with the organic click-through rate (CTR) for each Google SERP position. Position 1 captures roughly 27% of clicks, dropping sharply to ~2.5% by position 10 — the "traffic cliff" every SEO professional navigates. These figures come from large-scale CTR studies by Advanced Web Ranking and Backlinko.
If an AI Overview (formerly SGE) appears for your query, ~35% of organic clicks are absorbed before any blue link is clicked. Toggle the AI Overview input to model both scenarios. Multiply CTR-adjusted visits by your conversion rate and average order/lead value to get projected monthly revenue.
These are estimates — real CTR varies by brand, query intent, rich-result presence, and device mix. Use the numbers to prioritise keywords and set realistic SEO ROI expectations, not as guarantees.
Frequently asked questions
What is organic CTR and why does position matter so much?
Organic click-through rate (CTR) is the percentage of searchers who click your result. Position 1 gets roughly 10× the clicks of position 10 — a 10,000-search keyword yields ~2,700 visits from position 1 but only ~250 from position 10. Even a two-position improvement can double your traffic.
How much do AI Overviews actually reduce organic clicks?
Studies from SparkToro, BrightEdge, and Lily Ray consistently show 25–40% click reduction on queries with an AI Overview. This calculator uses 35% as the consensus estimate. The impact is highest for informational queries and lower for commercial/transactional intent where Google still shows traditional results prominently.
What conversion rate and order value should I use?
Use your actual site conversion rate and average order value (for e-commerce) or average lead value (for B2B/SaaS). If you don't have data yet, 2–3% conversion rate and your product's listed price are reasonable starting defaults. The calculator is most useful for comparing scenarios — position 1 vs. position 3, with vs. without AI Overview.
Can I trust these traffic estimates for planning?
Treat them as directional benchmarks, not precise forecasts. CTR varies by brand recognition, SERP features (featured snippets, maps, shopping ads), device, and query intent. Use keyword-specific CTR data from Google Search Console once you're ranking to refine these projections.
Traffic cliff — visits by position
Visits: 1,100 · Revenue: $2,200.00
Show data table
Traffic cliff — visits by position
Visits
Revenue
Position 1
2,700
$5,400.00
Position 2
1,600
$3,200.00
Position 3
1,100
$2,200.00
Position 4
800
$1,600.00
Position 5
600
$1,200.00
Position 6
500
$1,000.00
Position 7
400
$800.00
Position 8
320
$640.00
Position 9
280
$560.00
Position 10
250
$500.00
Results are estimates. Verify with a professional for important decisions.
About this calculator
This calculator estimates the monthly organic visits and potential revenue a keyword can deliver based on your target Google ranking position. Enter a search volume, pick a SERP position, toggle whether an AI Overview is present, add a conversion rate and average order value, and the tool applies position-weighted click-through rates to give you a directional traffic forecast.
How to read your results
The headline figures show estimated monthly visits, conversions, and revenue for your chosen position. The traffic-cliff chart plots all ten positions at once so you can see how sharply clicks drop from position 1 to 10 — the steeper the curve in the early positions, the higher the premium on ranking on the first page. Click-through rates by position are averages from public studies and vary widely by industry, SERP features and AI Overviews; treat the traffic figure as a directional range, not a guarantee.
Worked example
Keyword with 10,000 monthly searches, target position 3, no AI Overview, 2% conversion rate, 50 order value.
Position 3 carries an 11% CTR, so the calculator projects 1,100 monthly visits, 22 conversions, and 1,100 in revenue — with a value-per-visit of 1.
Frequently asked questions
Where do the click-through rates come from?
The CTR table is drawn from Advanced Web Ranking's ongoing CTR study and Backlinko's analysis, which are two of the largest aggregated datasets for organic Google click-through rates. Position 1 averages around 27%, position 3 around 11%, and position 10 around 2.5%, though your niche and SERP layout will shift these numbers.
What does the AI Overview toggle do?
When AI Overviews (formerly Search Generative Experience) appear above organic results, studies by Lily Ray, SparkToro, and BrightEdge cluster around a 25–40% reduction in organic clicks. The calculator applies a 35% haircut to every position when you enable this toggle, reflecting the consensus midpoint.
Why does the revenue figure use bare numbers without a currency symbol?
You select your preferred currency in the calculator header and the output inherits that currency — the order value you enter is already in that currency, so the revenue figure is simply conversions multiplied by your order value.
Can I trust the traffic estimate as an exact forecast?
No. CTR averages conceal significant variation across industries, query types, and SERP features such as featured snippets, image carousels, and local packs. Use the number as a planning range — it tells you whether a keyword is worth pursuing, not exactly how many visitors you will receive.
How does the value-per-visit metric help me?
Value-per-visit divides projected revenue by projected visits to give you a single number that summarises how much each organic visitor is worth. Comparing this across multiple keywords helps you prioritise the ones that deliver the most commercial value per click, independent of volume.
How it's calculated
Estimated monthly visits = search volume × CTR for the target position. If an AI Overview is present, visits are further multiplied by 0.65 (a 35% reduction based on the 2024 SparkToro and BrightEdge consensus). Conversions = visits × (conversion rate ÷ 100). Revenue = conversions × order value. Value-per-visit = revenue ÷ visits (zero when visits are zero). CTR values for positions 1–10 are sourced from Advanced Web Ranking (2024) and confirmed by Backlinko's aggregated analysis.
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